I'm gonna go on a bit if a rant here. It's gonna be about the 2020 election in the US so if you don't wanna hear it, click off after reading the bold. This won't mention politics itself, just election predictions.

K

So, I cannot stand people that are just like "Trump's gonna win." but when you ask why, the only thing they reply with "the polls were wrong in 2016." and that's it. Like, bruh. The polls didn't predict the correct winner in FOUR states, Nevada, which has a history of underestimating Democrats in the polls, and the three rust belt states. And out of those four states, only ONE state was outside of the margin of error, Wisconsin. I need more than the polls were wrong in 2016. I've been consistently looking at the data, whether it's been the polling averages, various forecasts, the candidates favorability ratings, or other types of data. This race is nowhere as close as 2016. For Trump to win, using the fivethirtyeight polling averages, the polls would have to be predicting the wrong winner in Arizona (+2.8), Florida (+2.2), Georgia (+1.6), Iowa (+0.4), Maine's 2nd (+2.8), Nebraska's 2nd (+6.3), North Carolina (+2.0), & Pennsylvania (+5.1). Other Battleground states or close states in 2016 include Michigan (+8.1), Minnesota (+8.0), Nevada (+6.1), New Hampshire (+11.5), Ohio (+0.1 [For Trump]), Texas (+1.3 [For Trump]), & Wisconsin (+8.4). The polls would have to be way off, way more than in 2016, which is unlikely. It's also worth noting that the polls have had time to become more accurate. Biden is PLUS SIX percent in favorability ratings, where as Trump is in the negatives by double digits. For reference, Hilary was also in the negatives by double digits. THIS ISN'T 2016, TIMES HAVE CHANGED!

Sorry, I had to deal with a couple of these people the other day at school. Also when I told them I had been looking at the data, they assumed it was only the polls.

K, felt good to get that out of my system.