COVID-Marys

©April 1st 2020, Olan L. Smith

I don't hear a peep, no sounds of life; no cars, no talk, and the children are quiet.

The lady upstairs with a tot, who dribbles a bowling ball

Directly over my head, is gone. I assume she is staying with her mother or ex.

The city is on curfew and lock-down. We are only allowed out for groceries;

To work vital jobs, all others are subject to arrest and fines

You have to have a card stating your job is vital to you at all times.

The courthouse is closed to public access and only a reduced staff is present.

The three universities are closed, and all public schools. I assume all trials

Are postponed for those reasons. I haven't been out for groceries for over two weeks.

But I go tomorrow for meds and groceries so I can tell you more,

This is a city of about 200,000 including surrounding burgs, so we get a lot of traffic

From all over, to shop. I hope the nuts are not hoarding the eggs and TP,

Napkins, and stuff. The city guidelines are strict, but still somewhat loose as for who

Is considered essential workers, in my opinion. The city has only 66 cases confirmed.

(Now, the confirmations have a week long lag time) and one death which has no lag time.

Statewide confirmed cases are 1406, but since we have the lag it is most likely

3 to 9 times that since we have a three-day doubling report nationwide, as of today, and that

Has to consider the lag time between the test and the confirmation. So, confirmed

Is 1406 X doubling of 2 times in a week, equals 2,812 cases X up to 3 equals 8,436 cases

Presently, Missouri is considering all. We have to take in the delay to get a realistic count.

Now, we have no idea about the COVID-Mary's out there; therein is where the faster

Test comes in. Faster if you go to your local lab, but not, so much if you mail it in

Since, the mail has a lag time as well. Today, Iceland today estimates that 50% of cases show no signs.